In April 2025, U.S. President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, temporarily reducing the rate to 10% to ease market tensions and promote trade negotiations. However, tariffs on China were not exempted and were further increased from 104% to 125%, with some reports mentioning 145%. This dramatic policy shift triggered severe fluctuations in global capital markets, with the Nasdaq index soaring 12% in a single day, marking the second-largest single-day gain in history. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market, due to its decentralized nature, safe-haven attributes, and sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations, once again became the focus of investors. This article will analyze the impact of the U.S. tariff policy adjustment on the cryptocurrency market and explore whether it presents investment opportunities.
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I. Background of Tariff Policy and Market Reaction#
Trump's tariff policy has been a global economic hotspot since he took office. On April 9, 2025, he announced a 90-day suspension of high reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries that had not retaliated, reducing the rate to 10%. This decision was interpreted as a compromise to market pressures. Prior to this, U.S. stocks had been declining for several days due to high tariff expectations, and the bond market was sluggish, facing obstacles in government debt issuance. After the suspension of tariffs, market sentiment quickly reversed, leading to a surge in U.S. stocks, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording significant gains.
However, China was excluded from the exemption list, and tariffs were further escalated to 125% or even 145%. This move was seen as an attempt by the U.S. to isolate China through trade barriers while forcing more countries back to the negotiating table. Treasury Secretary Basent stated that this was a "long-term negotiation strategy" aimed at pressuring opponents through unequal tariffs. However, this policy also raised concerns about increasing global supply chain uncertainty, especially for countries and businesses reliant on U.S.-China trade.
The cryptocurrency market exhibited a complex response in this context. Bitcoin (BTC) prices rose approximately 8% shortly after the policy announcement, breaking through $80,000, while some altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) recorded gains of 5%-10%. However, the market subsequently experienced a pullback, indicating investor divergence over long-term impacts. The volatility of cryptocurrencies makes them a sensitive indicator for observing macroeconomic changes, and how the short-term easing of tariff policies and long-term uncertainties affect this asset class is worth exploring in depth.
II. Potential Impact of Tariff Policy on the Cryptocurrency Market#
1. Increased Safe-Haven Demand#
Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are often regarded as "digital gold," providing a safe-haven function during times of economic uncertainty. The U.S. suspension of tariffs on multiple countries may temporarily alleviate global trade tensions, but the high tariffs on China exacerbate geopolitical economic risks. An escalation in the U.S.-China trade war could lead to supply chain disruptions and rising inflationary pressures, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin and stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) may attract more capital inflows due to their decentralized nature, especially against the backdrop of increasing volatility in traditional markets.
Additionally, the uncertainty of the 90-day exemption period may prompt investors to seek hedging tools. The cryptocurrency market, with its 24/7 trading and high liquidity, becomes a potential choice for short-term capital hedging. For example, on April 10, 2025, on-chain data showed a 20% surge in Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume, reflecting the market's rapid response to policy changes.
2. Dollar Volatility and Cryptocurrency Prices#
Tariff policies directly affect the exchange rate of the dollar. The U.S. suspension of tariffs on multiple countries may reduce short-term appreciation pressure on the dollar, but the high tariffs on China could reinforce the dollar's position as the global trade settlement currency. A stronger dollar typically puts pressure on cryptocurrency prices, as investors may prefer to hold dollar-denominated assets. However, if tariffs are reinstated after 90 days, the global economy may face greater shocks, potentially exacerbating dollar volatility and increasing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.
For instance, in April 2025, the dollar index (DXY) fell by 1.5% after the announcement of the tariff suspension, and Bitcoin's price briefly rose in response. This indicates that market expectations of a weaker dollar may provide short-term benefits to cryptocurrencies. However, in the long term, if the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate, the dollar's safe-haven status may further strengthen, requiring cryptocurrencies to have more fundamental support.
3. Blockchain Technology and Supply Chain Restructuring#
Tariff policies may accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains, with blockchain technology serving as a transparent and efficient solution, potentially gaining more applications in trade financing, logistics tracking, and other areas. The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China may force companies to relocate production bases, with regions like Southeast Asia and India becoming new hotspots. Blockchain platforms like Ethereum and VeChain may benefit from applications in supply chain management, and related tokens (such as ETH, VET) may present long-term investment opportunities.
For example, in early 2025, Walmart announced a partnership with VeChain to track key products in Asian supply chains. This trend may be further accelerated by tariff policies, driving the practical use cases and market demand for related tokens.
III. Investment Opportunities and Risks in Cryptocurrency#
1. Investment Opportunities#
- Short-term Volatility Trading: The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may lead to significant volatility in cryptocurrency prices, making it suitable for short-term traders. For instance, the rapid rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum after the policy announcement provided opportunities for high-frequency trading.
- Long-term Safe-Haven Assets: If the U.S.-China trade war continues to escalate, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may benefit from safe-haven demand. Investors may consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy to diversify short-term volatility risks.
- Blockchain Application Tokens: Tariff policies may drive the application of blockchain in supply chains, cross-border payments, and other fields, with related tokens like ETH, VET, and LINK potentially having long-term growth potential.
2. Investment Risks#
- Policy Uncertainty: After the 90-day exemption period, if the U.S. reinstates high tariffs, the global economy may face greater turmoil, and the cryptocurrency market may experience selling pressure.
- Regulatory Risks: The U.S. has recently intensified its regulation of cryptocurrencies. In March 2025, the SEC proposed new rules requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to enhance transparency. If regulations tighten, it may dampen market enthusiasm.
- Technical Pullbacks: The cryptocurrency market often experiences pullbacks after rapid increases. For example, on April 11, 2025, Bitcoin's price fell from $82,000 to $78,000, indicating that market sentiment remains unstable.
IV. Conclusion#
The U.S. suspension of tariffs on multiple countries for 90 days injects short-term optimism into global markets, but the high tariffs on China exacerbate geopolitical economic tensions, potentially increasing demand for safe-haven assets. The cryptocurrency market, due to its decentralized nature and high liquidity, may welcome investment opportunities in this context, particularly for Bitcoin, stablecoins, and blockchain application tokens. However, the temporary nature of the 90-day exemption, dollar volatility, and regulatory risks also add uncertainty to the market.
For investors, short-term attention may be given to trading opportunities arising from policy-induced volatility, while long-term focus should be on the practical applications of blockchain technology and the safe-haven value of mainstream cryptocurrencies. It is advisable to remain cautiously optimistic, combining fundamental analysis with risk management to allocate assets appropriately in response to the multifaceted impacts of tariff policies.